Forecasting & Statistics
What you will be able to do
- Describe data with averages, spread, percentiles and outliers
- Measure links between numbers with correlation and regression
- Forecast with trends, growth and seasons
- Check forecast error and give a low-high range
19 lessons and projects. Short, practical steps in a spreadsheet, with real Excel for the features a browser cannot run.
Outline
Module 1: Describing data
- Choosing the right average
- Spread: standard deviation and variance
- Percentiles and quartiles
- Rank and percentile rank
- Frequency tables
- Histogram chartReal Excel
- Finding outliers
Module 2: Relationships
- Correlation with CORREL
- Scatter chart with a trendlineReal Excel
- Simple regression: SLOPE, INTERCEPT and RSQ
- More than one driver: LINEST
Module 3: Forecasting
- Moving averages
- Straight-line trend: FORECAST.LINEAR and TREND
- Growth trends: GROWTH and CAGR
- Seasonality: a monthly seasonal index
- Forecast Sheet and FORECAST.ETSReal Excel
- Measuring forecast error: MAE and MAPE
Module 4: Ranges and risk
- Normal distribution: best and worst cases
Project: forecast next year's sales
Completing it earns a certificate of completion. It is not an accreditation or a professional qualification.
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